Reader.

It was a massive family affair last night in Toronto. We got the whole crew together: Katie's parents (Lesley and Randy), her brother Mike and his family (Ca and baby Orion). We were hosted by Julie's (Katie's other brother Matt's wife) parents Nelly and Dale.

I ended up chatting with Dale for a solid hour (as one does after a few glasses of wine) about everything from politics to the economy. But one topic kept coming up: "Is the money actually going to be there when I need it?"

Dale brought up a fear that I hear all the time: that Old Age Security (OAS) and CPP are underfunded and likely to become insolvent before we get to use them.

It got me thinking, is he right?

Is our safety net actually safe, or is it just a Ponzi scheme with a maple leaf on it?

So, this afternoon, I dug into the numbers to give you (and Dale) the real answer, as one would do on Sunday afternoon.

🇨🇦 The Verdict: Is OAS Going Bankrupt?

First, we need to separate the two programs because they work completely differently.

1. Old Age Security (OAS)

• OAS is not funded by a specific investment fund. It is funded by general tax revenue (the taxes you pay every year). It is a "Pay-As-You-Go" system.
• As the population ages (more seniors, fewer workers), the cost to the government skyrockets.
• OAS technically cannot go bankrupt as long as the government can collect taxes. However, it is becoming expensive. The cost of OAS is projected to triple by 2045.
• The risk isn't bankruptcy; it's policy change. To keep it affordable, the government could raise the eligibility age (remember when they tried to move it to 67?) or lower the "clawback" threshold for high earners.

2. Canada Pension Plan (CPP)

• This is totally different. CPP is funded by your contributions and managed by CPP Investments, which operates like a massive global hedge fund.
• The Chief Actuary of Canada recently confirmed that the CPP is sustainable for at least the next 75 years.
• Because they fixed it in the 90s. They raised premiums and started investing aggressively. It is currently one of the strongest pension funds on earth.

🇺🇸 The Bad News: Social Security (US)

If you are reading this from the US, the story is different.

• The Social Security Trust Fund is projected to be depleted around 2033-2035.
• It doesn't mean checks stop coming. It means the system becomes "insolvent", unable to pay full promises. Without reform, benefits could be automatically cut by 21-25%.

What Do You Actually Get?

Let’s strip away the fear and look at the math. If you retired today (in 2026), what is the check hitting your mailbox?

🇨🇦 The Canadian Stack:

• OAS (Max):~$742 CAD/month (if aged 65-74).
• CPP (Average):~$803 CAD/month (The average is shockingly low because not everyone contributes the max).
• CPP (Max):~$1,507 CAD/month (Only if you maxed out contributions for 39 years).
• Total (Average):~$1,545/month.

Can you live on $1,500 a month in Toronto or Vancouver?

Dale was right to be worried, not about bankruptcy, but about sufficiency. These programs are designed to keep you out of poverty, not to fund a comfortable lifestyle.

The Opportunity Cost: What If You Invested It Yourself?

I often hear: "I could do way better if I just kept that tax money and invested it myself!"

Let’s test that theory.

Imagine "Self-Employed Sam" in Canada. As a self-employed physio, Sam pays both portions of the CPP contribution (Employer + Employee).

• Sam pays roughly $8,460/year (max contribution) into CPP.
• In exchange, Sam gets a guaranteed, inflation-indexed pension of roughly $18,000/year (in today's dollars) for life after age 65.

The "Do It Yourself" Alternative: If Sam took that same $8,460/year and invested it in the S&P 500 (assuming 7% real return) for 35 years:

• Total Portfolio:~$1.1 Million.
• Safe Withdrawal Rate (4%): This would generate $44,000/year in passive income.

Strictly by the numbers, investing it yourself wins (generating $44k vs. $18k).

• BUT... The government pension has zero market risk. Even if the stock market crashes the year you retire, CPP checks still clear.
• The Lesson: Don't view CPP/OAS as an "Investment." View it as Longevity Insurance. It protects you if you live to 105. Your personal portfolio is for wealth.

New Resource

I know a 500-word email can't cover the nuance of death benefits (where does the money go?), spousal survival rules, and exactly how much you need to save to fill the gap.

So, I wrote this guide that breaks down exactly how both systems work, how they are funded, and the specific rules around "Survivor Benefits" (hint: Canada just increased the death benefit to $5,000 for certain cases).

👉 Read the Full Blog: The 2026 Guide to CPP & Social Security​

The "Money Pit" Update: The Glow Up vs. The Ghosting

Speaking of investments... we finally crossed the finish line on the rental renovation. 🏁

The "High-Value" Upgrade List:

• Flooring: Ripped out the old carpet ➡️ Installed Luxury Vinyl Plank (LVP).
• Paint: Deleted the "smoker yellow" ➡️ Fresh White everywhere.
• Lighting: Replaced the "boob lights" with modern LED flush mounts.
• Amenities: Brand new Washer/Dryer and a full Kitchen refresh.

...But here is the Humble Pie 🥧 Social media loves to show the "After" photos, but it rarely shows the reality of being a landlord.

This morning, we (Katie and I) rushed from the gym to the property, sweating (literally and figuratively), to do a final frantic clean before the open house. We were ready. The unit looked perfect.

And then... crickets. 🦗

No one showed up. Not a single person.

We stood in my beautifully renovated, empty kitchen for 75 minutes.

You can control the renovation.

You can control the budget (mostly).

You cannot control people.

Being a landlord requires thick skin and patience.

So, we are back to the drawing board on the tenant hunt this week. If you know anyone looking for a fresh, modern unit... hit reply.

The full budget will be shared soon, just have a few transactions to hit the account

As I told Dale last night: The government might help you survive, but they won't help you thrive.

If you are banking 100% on OAS/CPP, you are planning for a retirement of scarcity.

The "Gap" between what they pay (~$1,500/month) and what you need is entirely up to you to fill.

​
Robin Valadares

​@financiallyfulfilledpro and Certified Financial Counsellor CFC™

​​​​​

Do you get value from these weekly emails?​
​America doesn't run on Dunkin, I run (walk) on coffee, keep me fueled up to keep writing by buying me a cup of coffee.
​
Share this email newsletter with a friend, colleague, or someone you think would benefit. You'll put a smile on my face knowing that this material will reach more people, and your friends, family, and colleagues will learn more about their financial situation and future!
​
Use this link to share: https://financiallyfulfilledphysio.ck.page/profile​